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By AGGREY MUTAMBO
Thursday December 7, 2023
Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. PHOTO | POOL
Somalia’s entry into the East African Community (EAC) as well as
promising domestic reforms helped earn the country a lifting of an arms
embargo imposed 31 years ago, initially to tame warlords but later
target Al Shabaab militants.
But celebrations for the move by the
UN Security Council (UNSC) last week could come with new worries among
peers in the EAC where irregular flow of weapons through porous borders
has often led to frequent violent extremism.
Lifting of the
embargo allows Mogadishu to arm its police and military forces with
modern weaponry. But peers in the EAC face Somalia’s big task of
ensuring weapons that fall in the wrong hands are not used perpetuate
violence in their borders.
Diplomats who spoke at the UNSC’s
briefing on Friday cited Somalia’s continued legal reforms in security
and financial sectors, as well as its readiness for integration with
neighbours among biggest influences to lift the restrictions.
Japanese
Diplomat Shino Mitsuko said her country supported the new resolution
because it targets violators rather than a government seeking to
rebuild.
She argued Somalia will now be free to engage in “enhance greater regional cooperation to degrade Al Shabaab in the region”.
Al
Shabaab remains banned from purchasing or accessing weapons in the
international market and countries must work together to ensure no
violations.
Abukar Dahir Osman, Somalia’s Permanent
Representative to the UN, said his country will now be ready to
“confront security threats, including those posed by Al Shabaab”.
“Sustainable
peace and security can only be achieved through a comprehensive
approach that integrates security measures with initiatives aimed at
fostering long-term stability and prosperity,” he said.
Somalia
announced it will immediately proceed with the second drawdown of
African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis) with a new batch of
3,000 troops expected to leave Somalia by end of this month. Atmis
should be completely out of Somalia by December 2024.
The move by
the UN Security Council meant President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud had
delivered two of his three promises; joining EAC and having an embargo
imposed in 1992 lifted. The third goal is to attain debt relief,
allowing Somalia to discuss lending terms with international financial
institutions.
All three are important but the arms embargo could
affect relations between Somalia and its federal states, as well as be
forced to make urgent reforms that could stop illegally re-arming Al
Shabaab from the national armoury.
In addition, critics say it
will not be Mogadishu’s headache alone. Hilaal Institute, a security
think-tank in Mogadishu, suggested the embargo which has lasted 31
years, was being lifted prematurely.
“The evidence suggests that
the premature lifting of the arms embargo could precipitate a range of
adverse outcomes, from intensifying clan conflicts and enabling illicit
arms flows to posing broader threats to regional and global stability,”
Hilaal concluded in advisory last week.
“The interplay of
domestic dynamics – the clan-based societal structure, limited
government control over ports of entry, open arms markets in Mogadishu,
and instances of Somali National Army (SNA) weapons appearing on the
open market.”
Just a week after Somalia had been formally
admitted into the EAC, the arms embargo lifting generated a celebration
in Mogadishu.
President Mohamud and his Prime Minister Hamza
Barre were saying the same thing: Somalia is ready to confront its
arch-enemy Al Shabaab now that it will be allowed to arm itself.
“The
voting in our (Somalia’s) favour has several benefits,” said the
president, noting that Somalia’s armed forces will be sufficiently
empowered.
“Next, this empowerment will pave the way for clearing
the Khawarij (religious deviants) from the country,” he added in clear
reference to the Al Qaeda-linked Al Shabaab.
Mohamud reiterated
that this total permission gives Somalia a leeway to buy the weapons it
needs to defeat terrorists and secure its borders.
“Besides,
members of the international community can have the faculty to offer us
arms and ammunitions that can help our drive to stabilise our nation,”
he said.
Perhaps Mogadishu’s first headache is to ensure it
remains united on the issue given the federated structure the country
has adopted in the last 15 years with regional governments enjoying
significant autonomy and laws leaving gaps for anyone to interpret.
Somaliland,
the breakaway region that self-declared independence more than 32 years
ago, on Saturday said the UN Security Council must tighten checks on
Somalia to ensure warlords do not emerge.
“We believe that
lifting the embargo at this time would have detrimental ramifications
for Somaliland, the Horn of Africa region, and the international
community,” Somaliland government said after the vote in a statement.
Somaliland
is yet to be accepted internationally as an independent country even
though it runs its own government, military, currency and central bank.
Its
history with the Somali civil war, that led to the initial imposition
of the embargo in 1992, is that the government of then Somali leader
Siad Barre bombarded its capital Hargeisa where a rebellion had first
emerged against Somalia.
Somaliland claims some 200,000 people
were killed in those episodes and says part of the problem was irregular
flow of weapons and no accountability on usage.
Recently, clan
militias engaged Somaliland in Las Anod, a region straddling Somaliland
and Puntland federal state. The clan militia have since pledged
allegiance to Mogadishu which they want to directly administer the
region until it creates sufficient structures to become a new federal
state.
But that is both a problem and benefit for Somalia. A
problem because the law does not yet guide on the formation of federal
states nor does it create a limit. But with the clans aligning with
Mogadishu, it means Somaliland loses more ground at seeking
international recognition.
“The emergence of clan militia groups
such as Lasanod ones, aligning themselves with extremist entities
presents a clear and present danger in the region. Lifting the embargo
could fuel these groups, jeopardising regional security and exacerbating
ongoing humanitarian crises,” Somaliland argued in a statement.
Both
Hargeisa and Mogadishu however agree that there are gaps in weapons
management, something which the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia had
argued in previous reports after it found weapons donated to the
government forces had been sold off in the black market to Al Shabaab.
Hargeisa
argues there has been no demonstration that Mogadishu can account for
its weapons and hence there is a danger of diverting weapons to terror
groups. The two sides also can’t agree on the definition of terrorists.
Yet, Mohamud did admit his government faces the challenge of establishing a proper weapons management system.
“It is the mandate of the government to keep strict records of arms inventory,” said Prime Minister Hamza Barre.
Usually,
Al Shabaab tends to increase its tempo of attacks both inside and
outside Somalia when it gains more access to weapons and money.
Previously,
the militant group smuggled charcoal to fund its terror attacks in
neighbouring Kenya and Uganda. Then the group changed its tactics by
infiltrating key government agencies like the revenue authorities and
security agencies. A top diplomat in Kenya said they have genuine
concerns about management of arms inventory, but said Kenya welcomed the
lifting of the embargo because it allows Somalia and peers to
collaborate better on security management as regional forces under the
Atmis start to leave Somalia this month.
In the past, Kenya had
been among countries that sought tougher sanctions on Al Shabaab
including having them listed in the same regime as Al Qaeda. But strong
lobbying from activists curtailed the move as some argued it could lead
to collective punishment of innocent civilians in areas Shabaab’s
control.
In Mogadishu, local radio shows aired call-ins from locals, with some being bland about the arms embargo.
“There
is no point in celebrating the lifting of the arms embargo unless the
authority establishes a demonstrable means of controlling the arms,”
quipped a listener of Kulmiye Radio, an independent broadcaster in
Mogadishu. Several other political figures in Somalia also took the same
cautious view.
But government officials see it as a first good
sign. The Resolution 2714/23 lifted Resolution 733/92, which had been
amended several times to reflect the menace of Al Shabaab.
The
council however will still require Somalia to submit a list of weapons
purchased to its sanctions committee, and Mogadishu is required to
establish a national inventory of weapons besides promoting adequate
training of the police and military.
The council also says
Somalia must also vet and license private security firms that seek to
import weapons into the country and that it must ensure those weapons
are not resold, transferred or supplied to entities that are not
entitled to use the equipment.
Ghanaian Diplomat Harold Adlai
Agyeman, speaking on behalf of Gabon and Mozambique (African members in
the council), said Somalia had already made positive steps in setting up
a weapons management system, “which has been recognised in the
resolution”.
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